SOME call it a curse, but those awash in oil must feel blessed at the moment. As the price of a barrel of crude touched a record $90 last week, before sliding once again this week, speculators have been considering an even bigger benchmark: the $100 barrel. The number rattles consumers, but their worry is probably misplaced.
Such records have been broken before. Whenever the nominal price of oil reaches a new round number, minds wander towards the century mark. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, predicted in 2005 that prices would reach triple-digits this decade, and now many think it could happen next year. Despite the fact that oil supplies remain stable for now, it is just a matter of time before oil fetches $100 a barrel.
The strongest force lifting oil prices at the moment is America’s weakened dollar. Sellers with currencies that have strengthened against the dollar want more cash. And those buying oil with stronger currencies, such as the yen or euro, have an incentive to stock up, creating more demand and, again, higher prices.
On the political front, oil traders are closely watching the military activity on the border between Turkey and Iraq, where a brewing conflict could obstruct the flow of oil from the Kurdish region, stifling supply. Sharper diplomatic exchanges between America and Iran over the latter’s nuclear aspirations have added to the jitters. Meanwhile, demand for oil in China and India has become unquenchable.
Yet none of these factors are sudden or surprising, suggesting that buoyant prices could be signs of a bubble. According to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), fundamentals do not support the current high price of oil. In fact, Abdullah al-Badri, OPEC’s secretary-general, said that the recent spike has “largely been driven by market speculators.” Nevertheless, OPEC has agreed to raise oil output by 500,000 barrels a day beginning in November to ensure ample supply during the cold winter months, and to temper prices.
Despite such assurances, speculators continue to bet that prices will march upwards. But what would $100 a barrel mean for the world economy? Price shocks can certainly cripple economies, but that does not mean they always will do so. In the past, spikes in the price of oil have created a “waiting” effect, where firms stall investment to see if prices will fall back. The impact can seep through the economy, affecting everything from industrial production to credit cards. Worst cases can lead to recession or the dreaded “stagflation”, when inflation soars and growth sputters.
This time, however, could be different. Adjusted for inflation, the $100 barrel would not exceed the record set in 1980. Also, big economies today are generally better insulated from oil-price fluctuations. Developed countries use half as much oil per real dollar of GDP as in the mid-1970s, thanks to improved energy efficiency. This year the price of oil has increased by about 70% since January without stunting economic growth in America.
Not only could the world withstand higher prices, some argue that further increases would be beneficial. A growing number of economists suggest that pricier oil is healthy, particularly for the environment. But the rise must be gradual and predictable so that economies can adjust. Large and sudden increases are the ones that tend to create recessions.
This week prices have shown signs of a mild retreat. Michael Lynch, of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, a consultancy, recalls that just a year ago inventories were high and prices too low. “Once the tanks are full and the oil is sloshing around, that can change the market,” he says. Like their counterparts forecasting the weather, the predictions of oil-industry analysts could be just as wide of the mark and the $100 barrel of oil could still be some way
一旦石油价格突破每桶一百美元，有人就会“骂娘”，但那些沉浮于石油商海中的人此刻可能会“喜形于色”。上周原油价格达到新高——每桶九十美元。本周价格虽又有下滑，但是石油投机商打着自己的小算盘——他们认为油价将突破百元大关。该价格必将让广大用户大为恼火，事实上如此忧虑大可不必。
此前，石油单价也曾突破该记录。每当石油虚价达到新的整数时，也就越向百元靠近。早在2005年高曼投资银行就预计说油价将达到三位数。如今很多分析人士认为“百元梦想”明年就会实现，他们还认为尽管目前看来石油供给保持平稳，但每桶百元的价格只是时间早晚的问题。
当前，促使油价上升的最主要因素是美元贬值。石油价格以美元计算，那么持有强币的销售石油的国家需要更多的美元现金(来弥补美元贬值带来的损失）；而持有强币（日元或欧元）的购买石油的国家受到美元贬值的刺激就会囤积大量石油（以换取更多的美元），从而致使石油需求增加，进而油价上扬。
其次受地缘政治的影响。石油贸易国都密切关注土耳其和伊朗边境的军事动向。一旦该处发生冲突，就会阻断库德地区的石油输送进而导致供给紧张。同时美国和伊朗两国就伊核能计划问题存在的尖锐的外交矛盾对石油价格无异于火上浇油。另外，两个庞大的发展中国家——中国和印度对石油能源的需求保持强劲的势头也促使油价升温。
上述因素的存在完全是必然的，这说明油价的一路飙升乃石油泡沫的迹象。石油输出国组织并不支持目前的油价上涨。事实上，该组织秘书长巴德里认为市场投机是导致近期的油价上升的主要原因。即便如此，石油输出国组织仍同意从十二月起每天多生产50万桶石油以确保冬季油料供应的同时冷却油价。
即使有了上述的各项保证，投机者仍然大赌油价上升。那么每桶一百元的油价对全球经济到底预示着什么呢？油价动荡固然会削弱全球经济，但并非总是如此。过去油价上涨曾起到了“等”的效果，即公司停止投资以待油价回落。该影响渗透到经济的各个方面--从货物到信用卡。当时最严重的情况是在通货膨胀物价剧增时导致经济萧条或可怕的滞涨现象。
可是，如今情况就大不一样了。为避免通货膨胀，每桶百元的价格并不会超出1980年所创的记录。而且许多经济大国通常能够不受油价波动的影响。由于能源利用率的提高，现在发达国家生产相同一美元的国民生产总值只需利用二十世纪七十年代中期石油的一半。这就是为什么自从今年一月份以来油价虽然上升了百分之七十，但是美国经济并未受其影响的原因。
不仅全球经济能经得起更高的油价所带来的挑战，还有人认为油价进步增长可能对社会经济更有利。越来越多的经济学家建议油价增长是健康行为，尤其对环境而言更是如此。但是油价上扬应该时一个循序渐进且可以预测的过程，这样各国经济才能更好地适应。急剧而过快的增长只会导致经济萧条。
本周油价表现出了些许温和下降的迹象。美国能源与经济研究所的业务顾问迈克林茨回忆说一年前美国油料库存很大价格太低。他说：“一旦油库满了，油就会溅出来，整个市场就会因之而改变。”正如天气预报员预报的天气一样，许多石油行业的分析人士对油价作出的各种预设并不准确。石油的价格距离每桶一百美元还是有一定距离的。
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